Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba3e3cc4b3ed2a9efba251258d29165ae5240f1a217ec93aa51bf203e140f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 39c | 11,535$4,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,483.81 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 66c | 10,920$7,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,236.55 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 60c | 6,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 34c | 3,770$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 67c | 3,500$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 38c | 3,331$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.03 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 50c | 3,099$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.8 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 57c | 2,000$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 56c | 680$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.2 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 54c | 649.11$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 17c | 299.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 232.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.15 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…36d7backed No | 65c | 230.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…baa6backed No | 67c | 230.46$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb823…4f5cbacked No | 66c | 213.21$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd8…c4abbacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…1de9backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79e…55a2backed No | 66c | 111$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…c3fdbacked Yes | 61c | 65.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42da…304cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…d8b7backed Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…b1e7backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…8c4bbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…9b3bbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.