Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4453cfce7b4c8806d5140fdd79e415d6283708028b19fc75ef66c4e078eb992b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 70c | 11,316$7,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,914.78 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 53c | 8,715$4,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,093.86 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 2c | 6,427$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,276.42 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 12c | 3,916$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 70c | 3,862$2,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.09 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 14c | 3,588$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,103.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Yes | 60c | 3,016$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…8d73backed No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked No | 40c | 2,030$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…063cbacked No | 1c | 2,025$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,962$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.53 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 3c | 1,810$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.04 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 53c | 946.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.97 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 15c | 657.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.89 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 58c | 366.96$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.4 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…b1e7backed Yes | 34c | 59.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 61c | 45.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.