Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x361a695aea0a6c08ae1ab3c7b878f951bd5095df1b4d9caf32dc4c5f3c822737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed Yes | 0c | 11,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,763$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 35c | 3,650$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.3 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,592$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 9c | 2,240$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 73c | 2,027$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.63 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…c878backed Yes | 3c | 1,391$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 35c | 1,300$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 64c | 950$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…90abbacked No | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked No | 64c | 500$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…28e1backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…c846backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $5,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,100 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,200 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,300 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,400 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,900 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,100 October 6-12?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.