Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5259aa9ae616137177cc7f7e2082e00383dbf830407995b8550387f77213e013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 42c | 21,000$8,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,910 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 58c | 12,410$7,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,203.2 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 55c | 11,534$6,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,174.92 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 44c | 7,803$3,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.82 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…8d73backed No | 20c | 5,373$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.27 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 53c | 3,155$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.24 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 59c | 2,447$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.46 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 68c | 1,824$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 62c | 1,579$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.73 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 78c | 864.51$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…5b41backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 37c | 424.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed No | 79c | 379.94$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 68c | 350.48$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…3a5dbacked No | 44c | 315.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…d034backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 14c | 270$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd556…d4c9backed Yes | 63c | 211.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e671backed Yes | 55c | 183.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7651…0511backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 60c | 124.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 43c | 111.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…805cbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 54c | 80.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…de2fbacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…357fbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e49backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…eacfbacked No | 58c | 31.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…6f4fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.