Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5ecfa230f1c656f6383872fa7d7e63941f66bf46a401b8dffba20560483066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 1c | 25,454$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.28 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 15,555$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 6c | 6,864$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.24 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,069$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.13 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 4c | 5,953$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 5c | 4,787$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,614$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed Yes | 8c | 2,513$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 5c | 2,128$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…51e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,987$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,897$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,780$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd65b…e183backed Yes | 3c | 1,655$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…1339backed Yes | 9c | 1,487$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…1339backed Yes | 5c | 1,426$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 4c | 1,307$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127c…3743backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 747.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…ac51backed Yes | 8c | 512.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 6c | 364.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 80c | 345.96$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…d034backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7601…d507backed Yes | 7c | 233.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6645…4b0ebacked Yes | 7c | 222.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 8c | 222.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…09cbbacked Yes | 7c | 182.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…057bbacked Yes | 15c | 164.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…c877backed Yes | 10c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 13c | 114.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…4653backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.