Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9709a52103172a5ed62d66e2b4c3be1f0d868da5cce8108d1ff81c3be71bcbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 17c | 17,180$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,909.93 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 17c | 17,135$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867.31 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed Yes | 1c | 14,036$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…5aedbacked Yes | 3c | 10,660$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 9,804$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 5,897$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 23c | 5,462$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.57 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 16c | 2,113$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…8741backed No | 38c | 960.91$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…c877backed Yes | 2c | 909.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 815$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 1c | 747.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…9f5abacked Yes | 29c | 731.72$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 68c | 589.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…c23fbacked Yes | 61c | 395.08$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…753dbacked No | 42c | 383.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 55c | 43.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f0…8e01backed No | 75c | 43.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…0799backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adf…d89cbacked Yes | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +16.5wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.