Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79cf66d025e6229cae0d4868ee5d5ab494d7014f138bb113f5d40b22316b96ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 23c | 13,845$3,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.42 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 27c | 10,108$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.05 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 11c | 9,510$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.67 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,777$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,298$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,200$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…dcd8backed Yes | 32c | 4,001$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 29c | 3,495$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,438$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,374$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 79c | 3,200$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,865$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…922cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,474$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…a48abacked Yes | 8c | 2,468$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Yes | 7c | 2,400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 76c | 1,932$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.76 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed Yes | 15c | 1,338$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…1339backed Yes | 12c | 1,312$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes | 31c | 1,224$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,090$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.29 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 8c | 1,032$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…161fbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 14c | 934.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 19c | 539.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…e7c0backed Yes | 7c | 485.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 38c | 440.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…c23fbacked Yes | 17c | 388.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes | 13c | 334.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…d034backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…e6c1backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d7f4backed Yes | 13c | 238$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…95f2backed Yes | 13c | 235.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…1ac1backed Yes | 6c | 224.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…774fbacked Yes | 18c | 219.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…f001backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 72c | 190$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcd…d2abbacked Yes | 15c | 183.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…c255backed No | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 22c | 156.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…1af2backed Yes | 19c | 118.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bb…f5e1backed Yes | 22c | 114.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…6eebbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…a73fbacked Yes | 37c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…4653backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.