Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0daf4bf8169690b25ad96482db50443fd3d635f5f92db157f7a504a39292ef4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $289,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 47c | 33,972$15,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,087.56 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdab4…7b5abacked No | 41c | 20,000$8,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,200 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 50c | 19,291$9,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,725.88 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 51c | 17,500$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795c…2093backed No | 59c | 17,004$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 53c | 11,452$6,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,379.9 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 50c | 6,789$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,414.76 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…8d73backed No | 16c | 6,460$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…dcd8backed No | 41c | 6,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 65c | 5,248$3,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.34 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…0cafbacked Yes | 60c | 5,048$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,007.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 51c | 5,000$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8a…b391backed No | 75c | 2,933$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 44c | 2,200$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 78c | 1,567$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.31 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…f001backed Yes | 70c | 1,100$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked No | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 59c | 1,045$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.57 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked No | 65c | 1,001$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed Yes | 71c | 996.7$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.26 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 30c | 989.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.25 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 51c | 905$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 72c | 774.74$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.05 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…3db0backed Yes | 27c | 733.33$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…e671backed Yes | 31c | 612.82$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked No | 13c | 499.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 40c | 435.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.27 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 48c | 412.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…3a5dbacked No | 41c | 366.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd2…fec8backed No | 71c | 352.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 56c | 329.07$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…d034backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 20c | 260.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…b163backed No | 75c | 240$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…ba94backed No | 59c | 237.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7651…0511backed Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48c…0d92backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 61c | 179.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed No | 45c | 165.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…1de9backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…357fbacked Yes | 50c | 135$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…6cefbacked No | 50c | 126.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…ae3ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed No | 56c | 95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 35c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488a…3781backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bd…e6c1backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a45…c42dbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…0e71backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…fe7abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…8d38backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…35debacked No | 77c | 51.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…4653backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcac1…7fddbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…c9ffbacked No | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…c173backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…78a0backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45f5…8f5fbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…a73fbacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…6b73backed Yes | 55c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $4,600 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,500 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $3,900 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,200 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,300 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,700 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $4,800 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.