TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,305,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,245,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,305,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,478 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d89…b02cbacked Hawks34c339,999$115,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224,399.652560%15 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Hawks32c187,522$59,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127,580.4651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f0…cd31backed Celtics66c159,439$105,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,229.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics66c123,125$81,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,265.022,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…d504backed Celtics66c113,636$75,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,999.7421057.1%120 W · 90 L+20.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks34c101,455$34,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,960.271,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks73c82,419$60,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,102.45,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Celtics62c69,594$43,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,074.242,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Celtics23c41,973$9,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,653.771,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Celtics61c37,897$23,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,17310952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Celtics68c34,864$23,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,655.3748944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Celtics31c33,262$10,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,353.951,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Celtics66c32,402$21,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,385.1723245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hawks34c30,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,80060351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hawks35c30,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,50040446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Celtics66c30,000$19,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,649.9435450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe14…11eebacked Celtics66c29,000$19,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,140955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Celtics31c28,135$8,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,686.0312843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics26c25,581$6,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,680.818,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Celtics67c24,551$16,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,485.784,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Celtics68c22,716$15,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,333.1262347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Hawks76c21,651$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,150.9559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699f…c3a9backed Celtics20c20,287$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0003938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks78c18,978$14,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,090.093,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Hawks35c17,360$6,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,28420551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Celtics66c17,267$11,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,396.4520758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Hawks67c16,342$10,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,387.5248956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks69c15,945$10,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,020.091,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Celtics65c15,814$10,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,287.7123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Hawks34c15,010$5,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,906.619150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Celtics66c15,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,90020849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Celtics65c15,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,749.961,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Celtics67c14,913$9,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,991.7114663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Celtics48c14,715$7,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,046.3435942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks34c14,661$4,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,723.184,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Celtics31c14,443$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,432.8927251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Hawks72c12,848$9,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,545.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Celtics66c11,700$7,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,722.1314243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Hawks34c11,695$3,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,718.7515247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Celtics67c11,214$7,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,553.4587750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Celtics0c11,008$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.012270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Celtics3c10,814$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Hawks34c10,420$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,920.0348938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Celtics66c10,199$6,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,742.922646.9%106 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Hawks35c10,001$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,500.6519751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Celtics65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Celtics72c10,000$7,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,173.177348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Celtics29c9,675$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,842.4338540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Celtics30c9,657$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.0461939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf11d…ee9abacked Hawks72c8,910$6,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.481650%8 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Celtics23c8,400$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.9839842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Celtics66c8,348$5,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,484.321,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Hawks34c8,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,28037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Celtics26c7,567$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.511,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Celtics28c7,286$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.663141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Celtics69c7,201$4,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,968.6914945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Hawks30c7,200$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.913148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Hawks32c7,076$2,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,811.8744352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8925…0d79backed Celtics68c7,000$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7601070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Celtics66c6,583$4,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.492,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Celtics18c6,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08015547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Celtics68c5,764$3,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.3258449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Celtics71c5,555$3,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,944.0236741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Celtics67c5,270$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,530.913357.9%77 W · 56 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Hawks45c5,166$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.6550838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks55c5,140$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,310.474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Celtics66c5,113$3,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Celtics66c5,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf54b…8a63backed Celtics66c4,869$3,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,213.2111444.7%51 W · 63 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Celtics16c4,800$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.5581529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d9…7e2ebacked Hawks31c4,717$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,254.95944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Celtics22c4,700$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0158451.2%43 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Celtics9c4,675$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9735326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Celtics67c4,506$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003568.6%24 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x13d6…926ebacked Celtics22c4,500$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.999117.6%16 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Hawks27c4,500$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,266.591,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Hawks35c4,442$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,887.3428439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Celtics29c4,316$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.6239744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Celtics70c4,286$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020249.5%100 W · 102 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Celtics43c4,192$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.4123747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Celtics22c4,074$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.861,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Celtics67c4,069$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,726.063946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x291b…2667backed Celtics68c4,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7201330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ebf…82d5backed Hawks33c4,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6803551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbabe…f584backed Celtics67c4,000$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6801643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Celtics24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9980146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Celtics46c3,987$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.41,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Celtics4c3,676$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.981,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8a…0724backed Celtics46c3,651$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6702556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks34c3,611$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.52,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5057…cf88backed Hawks32c3,600$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Hawks32c3,377$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.5953939.5%213 W · 326 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741a…4dbebacked Celtics37c3,185$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1913138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Celtics69c3,042$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,113.9827747.7%132 W · 145 L-20.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Celtics31c3,040$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.163,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bab…cf38backed Celtics66c3,038$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.099859.2%58 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Celtics70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10020048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd12c…ed3dbacked Celtics69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0702352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e8…f218backed Hawks32c3,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0401225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x495c…1574backed Celtics30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.997423%17 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.