NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x881c24b49c91f4a956e4a6de399de877b81e6347bf370b812523b1fa6b58e64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Celtics, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Celtics | 50c | 66,865$33,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,465.4 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Hawks | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,000 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 50c | 5,469$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Hawks | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Hawks | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 49c | 3,531$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Celtics | 51c | 1,651$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.04 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Hawks | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Celtics | 51c | 669.9$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.01 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hawks | 50c | 439.86$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.73 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Celtics | 50c | 401.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks | 49c | 341.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.35 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Hawks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Celtics | 51c | 141.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Hawks | 50c | 122.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Celtics | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Celtics | 50c | 85.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hawks | 48c | 57.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Celtics | 50c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. CelticsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luka Garza: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.