NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687572e1b680b4bb4c88c6b651f85b0ca035e0d5694811b91d420e51865ee5a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,317$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,563$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.46 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…9536backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 48c | 999.97$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.98 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 955.8$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 930.83$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.78 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 26c | 826.22$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 49c | 753$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.03 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 492.13$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.29 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 52c | 461.54$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 453$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 49c | 266.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 47c | 261$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 47c | 182$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 166.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 118.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 115.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 113$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 33c | 112.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 57c | 95.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 78c | 74.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Under | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 55c | 65.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…701cbacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…5cccbacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 49c | 53.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 63c | 50.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…1d08backed Under | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed Over | 49c | 37.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 52c | 34.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Over | 47c | 31.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…bedfbacked Under | 70c | 30.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 50c | 26.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Over | 52c | 26.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…3168backed Over | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Hawks won
- Hawks vs. CelticsHawks won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luka Garza: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.