Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95875dfa90858e65f69d6f724da1c648a6d153b9b22e513e5ed132cb13305229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f91…fda1backed No | 1c | 22,000$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 4c | 8,045$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 24c | 5,465$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.97 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 14c | 5,170$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 77c | 3,448$2,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.31 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 26c | 2,504$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.73 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 18c | 1,570$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,467$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,332$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…5e5bbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…8569backed No | 10c | 1,184$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…f139backed No | 8c | 923.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…10cbbacked Yes | 76c | 677.31$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd842…b3cebacked No | 12c | 676.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…b075backed Yes | 72c | 610.62$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…81d6backed Yes | 80c | 520$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd800…c256backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed No | 6c | 490$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 22c | 471.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…b756backed No | 21c | 447.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 12c | 225.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…a52fbacked No | 5c | 221.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 209.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d8…ff32backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…b412backed Yes | 80c | 189.97$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7b…24cabacked No | 21c | 169.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…c32bbacked Yes | 80c | 137.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…2f7ebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…f851backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaced…f7f9backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…001ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…bf02backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…05c8backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ea…236abacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…7a15backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…00e3backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x598a…ef6ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…73e1backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…59eabacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…82b2backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…a0f1backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…98c6backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b0fbbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…9ebabacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…49ebbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0e59backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade4…e91dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b6…ddf8backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…1288backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…e257backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…b139backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…c374backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2e…8968backed Yes | 77c | 84.42$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bef…f650backed Yes | 76c | 81.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 80c | 68.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 75c | 66.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…2d7bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ed66backed Yes | 76c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 78c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.