Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfbe36a1200c4ec361aa20733ede4d33085eef400c11d28a00079a2ba46d3d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $550,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $530,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $550,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x955a…3cd3backed Yes | 4c | 81,783$3,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,339.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 0c | 36,654$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 32,050$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.13 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 23,672$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…017bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,256$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 1c | 18,927$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 0c | 12,382$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 11,399$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 6c | 10,299$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.09 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 1c | 9,415$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…0a84backed Yes | 5c | 8,260$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 3c | 5,100$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 64 | 3.1%2 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,266$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,434$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf3…7be2backed Yes | 1c | 3,397$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 5c | 3,300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…6eecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,575$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…ec13backed Yes | 1c | 2,095$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 2c | 1,972$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…d254backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,561$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 7c | 1,502$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…cc6bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,460$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Yes | 2c | 1,427$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…5a76backed Yes | 1c | 1,387$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…efe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,293$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…a619backed Yes | 2c | 1,163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…0720backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 3c | 949.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b9…0863backed Yes | 7c | 708.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…093abacked Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…0cebbacked Yes | 4c | 312.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 208.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…e0efbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…4964backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.