Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 70 and 80?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4a9573403752e7b7ea72cfaab58a1db0d1d0c8c4832d9f8ecea93f43bdf967
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 13c | 1,077$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 1c | 873.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed No | 12c | 864$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 79c | 789$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 21c | 721$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 12c | 572$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 12c | 571$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 12c | 357$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed Yes | 64c | 94.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +222.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 14c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 45.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…57fdbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 70 and 80?this page
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 60 and 70?No won
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 7 be between 80 and 90?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.