Movies · resolved market
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09af43406eacffb685d07d819861d78035ce3f684fd22caac7a7e5076370eb71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82ed…b788backed No | 9c | 5,326$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.59 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 13c | 2,787$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 13c | 2,306$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 52c | 2,214$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.47 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 77c | 2,157$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.99 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 27c | 1,661$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.32 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…caa6backed No | 24c | 1,440$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 1,373$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.85 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 73c | 1,159$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.84 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 1,044$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 64c | 979.7$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.48 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…c84abacked No | 74c | 934$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 897.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.42 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 893.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 11c | 859.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 26c | 797$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 31c | 751.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.86 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 74c | 704$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 26c | 686$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.64 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 74c | 629$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.46 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 74c | 621$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.54 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 5c | 614$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…791abacked No | 14c | 589.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 26c | 573$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.02 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 2c | 566.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 80c | 565.94$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 10c | 553.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 29c | 536.82$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 26c | 503$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 54c | 497.96$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.86 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 26c | 486$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.64 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 69c | 483.89$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 26c | 472$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 78c | 443$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…a0b3backed No | 14c | 427$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed No | 74c | 425$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…958dbacked No | 71c | 423.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 75c | 421.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf7…db17backed No | 10c | 421.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 58c | 380.49$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.36 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 26c | 375$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 76c | 368.78$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 74c | 351$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed No | 74c | 333$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed No | 61c | 315.33$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 287$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0f…c1d4backed Yes | 74c | 285.24$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 25c | 270.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 266.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 263.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…eb13backed No | 20c | 254.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 25c | 246$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…b944backed Yes | 55c | 240.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed No | 30c | 240$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 236.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 75c | 232.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 76c | 217.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed No | 46c | 200.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5effbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 25c | 196.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 26c | 193$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 175.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 26c | 174$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…948abacked Yes | 65c | 173.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 23c | 151.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 70c | 143.77$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…73d7backed Yes | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 16c | 122.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 109.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88b1…83d7backed Yes | 70c | 109.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 10c | 103$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…9206backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950d…c5d2backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x135a…c2b0backed No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…be79backed No | 41c | 55.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 24c | 53.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 73c | 52.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7e…70f8backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 46.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Yes | 78c | 36.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 52c | 31.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Yes | 74c | 31.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…04e4backed Yes | 62c | 30.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 75c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 73c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…8575backed Yes | 51c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…0d8bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)this page
- Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.