Movies · resolved market
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5edbb31462512c30081d2c6ba0059e0414c8a885c1a54deda82bedd3097a86c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 2c | 11,696$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.18 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 8c | 3,367$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.24 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 9c | 2,284$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,237$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 15c | 1,903$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.61 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,890$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 12c | 1,734$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,512$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,360$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 2c | 852.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 78c | 834.28$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 9c | 753$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 76c | 696.5$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.06 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 22c | 687.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 632.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 588.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…73d7backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 5c | 441.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 11c | 357.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 16c | 350$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 8c | 339.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…dcf2backed Yes | 31c | 323.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 13c | 289$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 8c | 261$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…b944backed Yes | 25c | 240.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 229.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…6563backed Yes | 27c | 226.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 14c | 220.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…f251backed Yes | 10c | 203.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b65…791abacked Yes | 10c | 200.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed No | 78c | 175.87$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…b875backed Yes | 26c | 168.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d49…6638backed Yes | 11c | 136.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…867abacked Yes | 17c | 130.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…bdecbacked Yes | 22c | 129.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 128.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…9ce1backed No | 74c | 126.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 75c | 111.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Yes | 15c | 79.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…5240backed Yes | 29c | 67.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 16c | 66.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)this page
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
- Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)Yes won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.