Movies · resolved market
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa06037bc969ddb2c3a5eca6e5ff977082012427b6ef579e7e95e6118b7c3311e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 76c | 902$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 71c | 646$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 66c | 599$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 12c | 568$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 34c | 518$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…e7cabacked No | 29c | 473$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 12c | 405$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 28c | 366$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 72c | 366$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked No | 24c | 358$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 24c | 339$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 12c | 214$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 24c | 205$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 29c | 173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 10c | 147.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 26c | 141.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…b7c0backed No | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 34c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 51.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?this page
- Will Dust Bunny win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will Peter Hujar's Day win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will Warfare win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.