TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,340,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,673,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,340,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc086…b1afbacked No1c90,018$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c65,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.9926312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec95…b89cbacked No2c45,019$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No0c41,506$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c32,999$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.996291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1327…0119backed No4c31,250$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No5c30,830$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.418815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No0c24,012$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No2c23,346$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.496923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c17,945$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9421713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No2c16,939$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.37634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed No0c14,902$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed No1c12,218$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5380%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcc…b202backed No1c12,111$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c11,875$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.752522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c8,047$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.372792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8c…028abacked No3c8,021$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…8a3cbacked No0c7,662$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No8c7,210$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.8210126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c7,200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed No3c7,185$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.821717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c7…def7backed No1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e6…9139backed No3c6,880$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.581315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed No0c6,820$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked No1c6,729$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c6,493$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.192560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x584c…db39backed No1c5,714$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No1c5,699$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9e…4c57backed No3c4,779$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No5c4,710$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.18591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No1c4,589$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.982003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c4,583$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed No3c4,471$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.96150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4851…d2a0backed No0c4,404$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed No3c4,307$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.386010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bd…626bbacked No1c3,804$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.07520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x893f…982bbacked No1c3,200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa229…0b73backed No1c2,887$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…54f9backed No7c2,864$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a9…8a83backed No2c2,803$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d98…d376backed No1c2,800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No1c2,789$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.87731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce1…d77bbacked No1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No1c2,441$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.19590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No5c2,411$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9415452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc99a…49abbacked No1c2,411$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No0c2,244$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bf…151cbacked No2c2,223$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked No7c2,202$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.942516%4 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27a5…c62abacked No5c2,165$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5921…c785backed No3c2,157$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2330…9efbbacked No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c1,968$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc149…5adebacked No3c1,932$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No6c1,880$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.788923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed No3c1,814$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.92110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c1,757$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.26230%0 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked No2c1,715$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.84330%0 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No7c1,693$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.241844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No6c1,620$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.65111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No7c1,435$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8120148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd968…c48cbacked No1c1,424$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed No7c1,399$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.041040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No3c1,382$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7132228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x271b…f242backed No3c1,350$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x619b…7000backed No2c1,304$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1feb…7db1backed No3c1,223$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…b7e2backed No1c1,154$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No1c1,076$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.94728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb9…37b5backed No3c1,029$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe917…4de9backed No2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9725…46d0backed No3c977.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-39.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No3c948.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.261526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c5…68b6backed No1c873.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked No8c791.62$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b7…0e9fbacked No2c746.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15f…9869backed No2c663.77$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ac…66b4backed No2c663.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No7c634.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4111723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No2c609.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.021612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…b108backed No3c590.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1298…bc58backed No7c583.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34db…0a87backed No3c468.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1b…791dbacked No3c465.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No9c428$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.392343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b67…a36ebacked No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed No8c391.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8ad4backed No9c382$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No9c317$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.531741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No9c294.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.034017.5%7 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No6c282.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.992977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No9c280.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.222445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No8c278.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.425122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No4c275$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4511720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked No8c259.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No12c220.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4214643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No8c212$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9618311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…d188backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c182.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.451,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.