AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e897977a630087c3377421dab25465f2084939e5dca4b2bd4d8ec6a901e789d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,297,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $812,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,297,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 126,131$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.09 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 76,963$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.32 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 1c | 60,007$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.97 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 1c | 56,013$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.81 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…1390backed Yes | 0c | 53,148$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 46,440$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 44,432$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.83 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 33,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…53efbacked Yes | 1c | 26,823$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…b202backed Yes | 0c | 24,191$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…2af7backed Yes | 1c | 23,970$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5f…9775backed Yes | 0c | 23,131$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…6bb2backed Yes | 1c | 20,545$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed17…5b41backed Yes | 0c | 18,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…a38fbacked Yes | 1c | 14,706$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 12,192$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…8135backed Yes | 0c | 10,410$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…05f9backed Yes | 0c | 9,348$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes | 0c | 9,223$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…ff97backed Yes | 1c | 9,007$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc46…899abacked Yes | 0c | 8,287$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 7,794$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 1c | 7,739$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 6,922$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…9139backed Yes | 1c | 6,700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724a…74aebacked Yes | 0c | 6,612$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,380$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…2df7backed Yes | 2c | 6,272$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…93cabacked Yes | 0c | 6,075$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0526…df50backed Yes | 0c | 5,829$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 0c | 5,287$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…f23cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…c767backed Yes | 1c | 4,590$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…69dfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 3,602$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…19d2backed Yes | 0c | 3,563$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…8ee4backed Yes | 0c | 3,415$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…77b8backed Yes | 2c | 3,271$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…be93backed Yes | 1c | 3,191$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…def7backed Yes | 1c | 3,067$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,046$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce1…d77bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,966$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 1c | 2,931$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,919$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0929…bbd4backed Yes | 0c | 2,839$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,645$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,642$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7605…db3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,543$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…735dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,520$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,266$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb832…c988backed Yes | 2c | 2,057$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 2,028$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…b4fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9356…ae30backed Yes | 2c | 1,884$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,861$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 1c | 1,854$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…fab0backed Yes | 1c | 1,846$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…7db1backed Yes | 1c | 1,733$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,663$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…2258backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…79a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,471$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 4c | 1,241$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…9319backed Yes | 1c | 1,079$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…1e37backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…4178backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…2b99backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…29efbacked Yes | 2c | 490$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 392.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 4c | 292.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.