TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,468,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$940,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,468,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c143,615$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.12920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61b5…60aebacked Yes1c103,990$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes2c55,548$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.998815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c45,875$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.56490%0 W · 49 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c44,161$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.296291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c41,536$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.54290%0 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c33,900$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.22003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8524…2af7backed Yes1c26,028$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2d…53efbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c26…1432backed Yes0c23,361$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.72650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c19,778$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8314421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4089…99d5backed Yes0c18,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…05f9backed Yes0c17,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes3c13,826$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.510126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes2c11,945$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.16010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde70…66e7backed Yes3c9,564$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b9…de55backed Yes1c8,189$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.95128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1692…5b09backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Yes1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe680…bdbbbacked Yes0c6,619$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a23…ab0bbacked Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c6,340$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.332522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes1c5,783$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.75150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes2c5,700$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2811723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d23…c926backed Yes0c5,634$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x435d…3942backed Yes3c5,110$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f0f…bf7dbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes0c4,890$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.57700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e6…9139backed Yes2c4,757$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.681315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c4,163$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.522560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c4,035$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.44634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,955$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.062792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb064…0c40backed Yes1c3,919$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf727…b917backed Yes0c3,843$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c3…1917backed Yes0c3,782$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6608…500abacked Yes0c3,686$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e09…0fe1backed Yes2c3,551$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c3,538$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.812560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c3,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes4c3,478$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.74283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…b19bbacked Yes0c3,408$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba92…2258backed Yes2c3,367$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c63…debfbacked Yes0c3,319$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc848…2728backed Yes5c3,267$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bf…151cbacked Yes1c3,221$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac5c…7b5bbacked Yes1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc06…00edbacked Yes0c2,975$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7605…db3bbacked Yes1c2,892$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes4c2,884$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.35111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed Yes2c2,875$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.64110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes2c2,867$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+56.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb469…b5bbbacked Yes5c2,867$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a14…b7cdbacked Yes1c2,765$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ea…4512backed Yes0c2,760$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb384…73cebacked Yes0c2,715$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4680…4baebacked Yes6c2,711$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c2,592$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb63…529ebacked Yes0c2,590$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb543…9e7cbacked Yes6c2,561$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda15…a083backed Yes5c2,525$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bdc…60e7backed Yes5c2,523$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1fe…62dabacked Yes5c2,483$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f0…da17backed Yes6c2,472$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde1e…12d9backed Yes5c2,408$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfd2…1e11backed Yes0c2,378$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c3…2ba0backed Yes0c2,337$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb7…0709backed Yes0c2,325$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41f…19d2backed Yes1c2,247$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac8f…2a77backed Yes1c2,216$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe926…842abacked Yes0c2,186$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aca…cb91backed Yes6c2,179$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda2b…85febacked Yes0c2,164$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5387…aa84backed Yes5c2,157$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bd…ff97backed Yes1c2,143$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dfa…70bebacked Yes0c2,046$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2df…2e05backed Yes6c2,030$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1d…df58backed Yes6c1,996$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e9…b806backed Yes1c1,985$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c7…8fffbacked Yes1c1,935$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd38c…2d7abacked Yes5c1,910$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes2c1,900$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.321315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27bd…ee7bbacked Yes1c1,867$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe248…9b4ebacked Yes6c1,861$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c1,839$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b5…9523backed Yes1c1,833$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc714…2f62backed Yes1c1,822$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,815$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd334…5f29backed Yes1c1,764$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…13afbacked Yes1c1,752$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd069…0ab1backed Yes1c1,749$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f70…5948backed Yes1c1,742$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d1…045ebacked Yes5c1,734$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes2c1,705$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.411225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ce…9292backed Yes1c1,698$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,697$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb1…7b80backed Yes6c1,641$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c1,636$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.