Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13462a968f98418aa0e0756aac71ac28ddbd73d301088b6e98bef03e7be156a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 68c | 2,506$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.86 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 34c | 1,857$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 20c | 1,494$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed Yes | 29c | 1,488$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 35c | 1,401$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.45 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,337$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.79 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked Yes | 34c | 1,336$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked No | 66c | 1,328$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked No | 71c | 1,289$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 66c | 1,268$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 72c | 1,264$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.36 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,259$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 64c | 1,242$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 66c | 1,223$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,210$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.75 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 26c | 1,199$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.59 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed No | 66c | 1,193$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,192$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 65c | 1,173$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed No | 74c | 1,155$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed Yes | 34c | 1,145$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,140$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 22c | 1,110$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed Yes | 19c | 1,102$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,087$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.28 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed No | 66c | 1,062$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 12c | 1,007$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes | 33c | 980$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 77c | 976$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed Yes | 35c | 970$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…7c87backed Yes | 11c | 951.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 22c | 943$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 22c | 943$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 4c | 936.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 19c | 936$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 35c | 934$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked Yes | 40c | 930.95$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 22c | 930$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 34c | 919$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…5f6abacked No | 66c | 904$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 73c | 900$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 57c | 886.74$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.29 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed Yes | 34c | 865$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 22c | 854$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 78c | 846$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 11c | 833$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 22c | 825$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 35c | 799$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.88 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 66c | 782$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 66c | 771$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 34c | 769$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes | 34c | 751$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 22c | 746$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 18c | 738.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 65c | 734$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 19c | 724$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.56 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 66c | 721$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.14 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 78c | 716$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 78c | 703$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 34c | 696$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked Yes | 22c | 693$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 34c | 693$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed Yes | 19c | 685$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked No | 66c | 675$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 77c | 669$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 23c | 656$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked Yes | 21c | 654$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 22c | 643$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 79c | 624$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 34c | 617$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 67c | 604$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 19c | 585$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 35c | 585$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 79c | 580$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 34c | 550$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 78c | 542$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked Yes | 34c | 528$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 78c | 514$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 35c | 512$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 66c | 505$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 34c | 493.85$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 78c | 492$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 79c | 489$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed No | 64c | 488$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 13c | 476$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…6e3abacked No | 78c | 474$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 78c | 456$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 19c | 447$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 66c | 442$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 22c | 433$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 78c | 425$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 22c | 425$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 34c | 419$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 34c | 413$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes | 34c | 412$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 78c | 401$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 78c | 398$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 34c | 378.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes | 13c | 378$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?this page
- Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by November 30?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by October 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.