Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa47c3241c8f51d4f02d8c6dea507d8ceee4be1adc425cecc933564c762ee24ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 77c | 7,071$5,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.1 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 77c | 3,389$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.73 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,143$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9c…6f7fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,600$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 49c | 2,534$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.93 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 26c | 2,103$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.22 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 39c | 1,960$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…48e8backed Yes | 31c | 1,484$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 76c | 1,388$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,355$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 40c | 1,340$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.31 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 34c | 1,299$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.14 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,151$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 37c | 1,046$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.48 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 15c | 1,032$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 803.55$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked Yes | 6c | 803.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 781.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 9c | 779.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 777.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 711.49$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…5d18backed Yes | 29c | 708.37$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 23c | 651.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 4c | 606.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 9c | 605.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 6c | 581.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 75c | 536.92$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…7657backed Yes | 12c | 508.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed Yes | 40c | 507.2$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 15c | 485.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 460.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d86fbacked Yes | 14c | 426.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 394.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…a3e5backed Yes | 36c | 363.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 5c | 312$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 23c | 299.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked No | 78c | 286.68$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 35c | 283.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…a31fbacked Yes | 15c | 266.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…1ed2backed Yes | 68c | 263.5$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Yes | 13c | 249.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 9c | 237.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 16cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…9a69backed Yes | 14c | 236$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 14c | 205.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…4423backed Yes | 19c | 193$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 192.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 32c | 190.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6610…e922backed Yes | 6c | 179.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…bbb6backed Yes | 6c | 176.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…7d7fbacked Yes | 12c | 172.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 163.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 32c | 160$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 25c | 153.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 67c | 147.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed No | 75c | 142.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 35c | 141.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 31c | 135.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 55c | 128.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes | 17c | 120.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…409fbacked Yes | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 31c | 109.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e09…3f08backed Yes | 14c | 104.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…6718backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 98.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 161 | 73.9%119 W · 42 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 30c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…12f4backed Yes | 29c | 88.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1f…2578backed Yes | 13c | 82.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…e550backed Yes | 25c | 78.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…0b20backed Yes | 13c | 76.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…3a62backed No | 68c | 73.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 30c | 72.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…0a4dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 65c | 66.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…8181backed Yes | 26c | 66.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 16c | 65.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 19c | 62.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 49c | 60.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 77c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 32c | 47.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 26c | 46.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed Yes | 26c | 42.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 42c | 41.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 39.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 49c | 39.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked No | 79c | 37.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…536bbacked Yes | 30c | 36.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 42c | 35.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?this page
- Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by November 30?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by October 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.