Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0170502a5cecfcd3a3037d700f15b4fec4b9c4988de95e4ed1468eacd23ff29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 21c | 14,872$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.9 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 76c | 10,748$8,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.29 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 75c | 9,215$6,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,341.73 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 73c | 6,760$4,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.53 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 27c | 6,632$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.64 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 25c | 5,793$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 5,401$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.96 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 28c | 5,249$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.1 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 76c | 4,696$3,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.51 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 70c | 4,613$3,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.38 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 20c | 4,300$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.25 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 18c | 3,955$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.27 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 75c | 3,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 23c | 2,860$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.08 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 2,699$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.55 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 29c | 2,607$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.09 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 24c | 2,446$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 2,325$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.32 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 32c | 2,166$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.72 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,056$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.25 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 25c | 1,996$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.34 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…43ccbacked Yes | 52c | 1,990$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,969$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 29c | 1,911$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.28 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…3cadbacked Yes | 27c | 1,861$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked No | 73c | 1,800$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 24c | 1,796$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.68 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,702$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.77 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,690$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 1,688$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.7 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 1c | 1,685$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 7c | 1,652$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 33c | 1,593$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.8 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,535$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,424$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.23 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 1,412$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.25 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…2effbacked Yes | 35c | 1,392$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 23c | 1,387$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,317$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.38 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 17c | 1,252$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.67 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 19c | 1,190$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.41 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed No | 74c | 1,154$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.32 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 34c | 1,147$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.3 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 79c | 1,100$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,094$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 17c | 1,080$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 18c | 1,006$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 20c | 977.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 74c | 954.7$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 75c | 932.25$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.25 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 26c | 828.9$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.87 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 820.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…fce0backed Yes | 23c | 813.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 29c | 799.08$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.46 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…e013backed No | 71c | 798.38$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed No | 63c | 762.92$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed No | 69c | 728.33$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…f200backed No | 78c | 708.29$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 705.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 75c | 697.8$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.36 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…35e5backed No | 66c | 688.31$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 662.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…bdb4backed Yes | 15c | 654.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…86fcbacked Yes | 25c | 618.23$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…90e9backed Yes | 26c | 608.05$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 72c | 581.46$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.46 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 25c | 580.05$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.37 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 21c | 547.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 37c | 541.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed No | 76c | 521.92$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed No | 69c | 514.42$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes | 22c | 511.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed No | 65c | 506.25$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 24c | 501.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 500$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 485.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 77c | 472.12$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 31c | 444.3$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 23c | 435.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…7a9dbacked Yes | 18c | 428.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed No | 73c | 419.5$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 402$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 69c | 392.94$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…3b2fbacked Yes | 23c | 391.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 361$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…b741backed No | 74c | 360.96$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…28adbacked No | 69c | 360.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 16c | 333.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 79c | 332.72$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 77c | 321.81$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 49c | 313.54$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.19 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 24c | 306$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 300$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?this page
- Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by January 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by November 30?No won
- Israel x Syria security agreement by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.