TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Syria security agreement by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes21c14,872$3,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,093.947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No76c10,748$8,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.298359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No75c9,215$6,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.7337740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No73c6,760$4,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.5335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes27c6,632$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.646832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes25c5,793$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4346546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes22c5,401$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.9640828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes28c5,249$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.16538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked No76c4,696$3,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.5111844.1%52 W · 66 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No70c4,613$3,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.3836750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes20c4,300$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.2512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes18c3,955$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.278529.4%25 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7503351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes23c2,860$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.089626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes17c2,699$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.5548630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes29c2,607$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.0934440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes24c2,446$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes20c2,325$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes32c2,166$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.7256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes19c2,056$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.2551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0e…746abacked Yes25c1,996$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.344540%18 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e72…43ccbacked Yes52c1,990$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes51c1,969$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes29c1,911$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.2827643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9612…3cadbacked Yes27c1,861$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cea…4eccbacked No73c1,800$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes24c1,796$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.6820823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes21c1,702$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.776813.2%9 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked Yes8c1,690$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.83250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes22c1,688$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes1c1,685$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.489827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes7c1,652$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.284843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes33c1,593$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.821160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes25c1,535$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.723525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes19c1,424$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.233713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes34c1,412$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.2542738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19b3…2effbacked Yes35c1,392$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x135c…85e8backed Yes23c1,387$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3148333.7%28 W · 55 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes18c1,317$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.385425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes17c1,252$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.675633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes19c1,190$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4127233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed No74c1,154$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.325248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes34c1,147$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.33321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No79c1,100$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.783154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1e0cbacked Yes17c1,094$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.44175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes17c1,080$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0420239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes18c1,006$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.128219.5%16 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2905141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes26c999.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26021926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes20c977.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No74c954.7$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.131649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No75c932.25$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.255455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes26c828.9$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.872429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c820.57$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.031,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c87…fce0backed Yes23c813.71$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.181338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes29c799.08$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4619428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3642…e013backed No71c798.38$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed No63c762.92$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.92825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x506d…6654backed No69c728.33$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62f9…f200backed No78c708.29$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes15c705.91$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0915324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No75c697.8$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3618151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…35e5backed No66c688.31$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.58825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes18c662.33$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6831719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ad5…bdb4backed Yes15c654.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3811…86fcbacked Yes25c618.23$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+62.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe78f…90e9backed Yes26c608.05$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No72c581.46$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.468056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes25c580.05$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.375332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes21c547.24$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3311851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes37c541.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No76c521.92$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.264445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…6112backed No69c514.42$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.591546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes22c511.61$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+77.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed No65c506.25$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.197100%7 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+163.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes24c501.24$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.919217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No77c500$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.526138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb3…2682backed Yes23c500$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.157045.7%32 W · 38 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1207254.2%39 W · 33 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes16c485.36$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2526423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No77c472.12$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.443759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes31c444.3$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7510153.5%54 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes23c435.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf401…7a9dbacked Yes18c428.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed No73c419.5$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.722250%11 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c402$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6912524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No69c392.94$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.754769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e3d…3b2fbacked Yes23c391.25$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes22c361$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x147c…b741backed No74c360.96$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1782…28adbacked No69c360.58$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes16c333.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4322547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No79c332.72$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3920736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked No77c321.81$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.362240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes49c313.54$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.193917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes24c306$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.520749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No70c300$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813625%9 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.