Us Politics · resolved market
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 16 - 22 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34efed06905bc673ff297dea8c72178876c732529c9278c4a3b7a58d1074cee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 63c | 857$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 63c | 676$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 37c | 598$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 37c | 578$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 63c | 521$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked No | 68c | 520$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 32c | 520$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 37c | 507$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 63c | 462$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 37c | 425$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 37c | 379$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 63c | 349$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed Yes | 37c | 266$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 63c | 222$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 37c | 207$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 37c | 119$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 63c | 94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 37c | 93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 37c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 63c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 64c | 41.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 38c | 39.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 57c | 35.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 43c | 27.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 47c | 24.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 16 - 22 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?this page
- Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 16 - 22 be between 16,500,000 and 17,000,000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.