TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,058
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,206

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,058 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd650…c3a4backed No1c15,729$169 inLost-$169.12300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…5516backed No0c12,000$17 inLost-$171816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf9…a0d6backed No0c11,000$11 inLost-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8352…f2ccbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost-$101136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c5,405$14 inLost-$13.814327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No1c4,279$60 inLost-$60214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…f7b8backed No0c4,158$10 inLost-$10.01137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+250.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4282…ea9dbacked No0c4,000$13 inLost-$13.470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x799d…cbffbacked No0c3,818$11 inLost-$10.770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No1c3,000$17 inLost-$17.31469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c3,000$34 inLost-$34180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8651…22cabacked No5c2,885$150 inLost-$150180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c1,982$33 inLost-$32.675071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,794$26 inLost-$25.981,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c003backed No1c1,441$20 inLost-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No2c1,333$20 inLost-$202825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd4…2f17backed No1c1,225$15 inLost-$15100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b3…6285backed No1c1,208$15 inLost-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+330.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…e0ddbacked No2c1,062$20 inLost-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No2c1,000$17 inLost-$16.714320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked No2c845.62$15 inLost-$14.851855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ff3…f8c7backed No2c825.59$14 inLost-$1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf940…7736backed No2c526.32$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3be…1015backed No2c484.17$10 inLost-$103923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1326…d13dbacked No69c107$74 inLost-$73.83944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c65…5ad5backed Yes31c107$33 inWon+$73.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.