TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,519 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd650…c3a4backed No1c18,721$186 inLost-$186.33300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…5516backed No0c11,000$19 inLost-$18.671816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No1c4,420$60 inLost-$60214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c4,236$18 inLost-$18.314327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No1c3,000$17 inLost-$17.31469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a6…9c94backed No1c3,000$27 inLost-$271435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d73…f7b8backed No1c2,758$18 inLost-$18137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+250.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No2c2,000$37 inLost-$36.594320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c1,297$11 inLost-$10.997135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No2c1,037$21 inLost-$20.776011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b04…a7eabacked No1c812.37$12 inLost-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No2c727.02$11 inLost-$11.2312223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed Yes26c675$176 inWon+$499.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked No74c675$500 inLost-$499.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x061d…7706backed No2c650.81$14 inLost-$14.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca4…3adbbacked No2c573.24$10 inLost-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No58c344.82$200 inLost-$2008747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes44c339.01$150 inWon+$188.5915751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No5c249.99$11 inLost-$11.364136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No60c23$14 inLost-$13.8319449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes73c16$12 inWon+$4.315158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.