TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,184 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x799d…cbffbacked No0c15,010$15 inLost-$15.0170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a26…4ce4backed No1c10,000$100 inLost-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c4,054$62 inLost-$62.445071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c4,000$46 inLost-$46180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0665…2617backed No4c3,835$139 inLost-$138.6560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed No1c3,518$50 inLost-$50267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x433e…86fcbacked No2c2,443$60 inLost-$60160%0 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No1c2,053$23 inLost-$22.7811323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2867…9815backed No2c1,424$34 inLost-$33.522810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No2c1,139$23 inLost-$22.7712616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked No1c1,000$10 inLost-$108719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No1c991.62$12 inLost-$12.336011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c983.89$14 inLost-$13.647135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c866$13 inLost-$12.991,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd650…c3a4backed No2c819.18$19 inLost-$19.11300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa46f…d550backed No2c813.89$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No2c705.92$13 inLost-$12.584136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9b…095abacked No3c608.83$20 inLost-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf92…839dbacked No3c574.01$16 inLost-$16911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d18…7a02backed No4c501.68$20 inLost-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267b…7b15backed No2c444.12$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…7fc3backed No3c397.55$14 inLost-$13.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked No6c267.8$15 inLost-$15234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-68.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061d…7706backed No5c222.63$10 inLost-$10.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb90…ed8bbacked No9c130$12 inLost-$11.750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No9c124.86$11 inLost-$10.921199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.