TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd650…c3a4backed No1c12,289$117 inLost-$117.11300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…5516backed No0c7,000$13 inLost-$13.221816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No1c4,309$54 inLost-$54.19214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,199$40 inLost-$39.651,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No0c4,000$20 inLost-$19.521469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…9d0abacked No3c3,786$100 inLost-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c3,683$14 inLost-$13.684327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,502$30 inLost-$30.325071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c3,000$33 inLost-$33180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4282…ea9dbacked No0c2,900$12 inLost-$12.170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No1c1,417$20 inLost-$202825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa16f…6600backed No2c1,141$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf96c…e0ddbacked No2c1,067$20 inLost-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b04…a7eabacked No2c1,032$17 inLost-$16.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No1c1,000$14 inLost-$144320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No1c990.17$11 inLost-$10.996011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c003backed No2c909.45$20 inLost-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No2c841.56$13 inLost-$12.911818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6b3…6285backed No1c820.36$12 inLost-$12.26714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+330.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes78c26.25$20 inWon+$5.7515751%80 W · 77 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.