TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$711,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$706,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $711,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x799d…cbffbacked No0c66,695$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c44,608$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.535071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce0b…2174backed No4c25,906$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd650…c3a4backed No1c13,684$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.46300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6017…b75ebacked No1c13,612$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef7…01f5backed No2c12,655$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c12,198$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.391,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c44…5592backed No1c11,698$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd61…a676backed No2c11,205$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6cbcbacked No3c10,773$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd0…ab44backed No2c10,355$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No2c10,283$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.25214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd86d…ecf8backed No3c10,108$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef62…bcc2backed No1c8,807$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.982369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x729a…9d0abacked No4c8,698$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.022729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd74d…fc0abacked No1c7,833$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed No2c7,276$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b3…6285backed No2c6,518$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.23714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+330.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c5,995$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.817135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaff…c699backed No1c5,800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b3…5516backed No0c5,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-70%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d35…3d76backed No1c4,769$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-77.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb921…f947backed No1c4,464$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.961136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed No1c4,420$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.89736.1%35 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b96…63cabacked No2c4,288$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f8f…b9b0backed No1c4,252$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb9…f594backed No4c4,014$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26da…5110backed No1c4,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes44c3,889$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.533737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce2…2d0ebacked No1c3,874$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d73…f7b8backed No0c3,732$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+250.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No1c3,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0849…bb6dbacked No9c3,684$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3351330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-54%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed No1c3,567$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…6600backed No2c3,323$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x25ea…8be7backed No2c3,288$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.19425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-57.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No2c3,232$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0312616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c3,110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.36486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…5333backed No2c3,023$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No1c3,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No1c2,948$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.072036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed No1c2,900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29280%0 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No1c2,836$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.163717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe03…dd35backed No2c2,492$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4d69backed No1c2,475$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72544%11 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1856…506ebacked No4c2,349$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ae…890cbacked No2c2,220$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.661723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8651…22cabacked No5c2,159$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x121a…db9ebacked No1c2,149$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No2c2,100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0842311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1453…a680backed No3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.273043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No1c1,916$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.46303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55fd…5086backed No1c1,915$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6917…fde0backed No1c1,883$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac9…b12dbacked No2c1,794$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4282…ea9dbacked No1c1,690$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf92…839dbacked No1c1,672$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No1c1,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2f…7976backed No1c1,587$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No1c1,551$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No1c1,542$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.994195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad06…dc5cbacked No2c1,527$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No2c1,389$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x641b…0bbabacked No10c1,379$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x474d…be7bbacked No1c1,324$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae31…7fa1backed No1c1,304$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.254146.3%19 W · 22 L+9.6wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+79%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No6c1,290$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0925843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x543e…300bbacked No2c1,272$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes33c1,237$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.6258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fc…5d26backed No1c1,233$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.29771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+42.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No1c1,206$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.961703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe1a…214cbacked No1c1,199$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc2…d83fbacked No2c1,184$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2709…2d59backed No1c1,180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf96c…e0ddbacked No2c1,176$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b37…b320backed No3c1,166$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…c003backed No3c1,115$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a69…fc08backed No1c1,114$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb2b…6b3dbacked No2c1,082$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+325.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed No56c1,069$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.64875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d9c…d89ebacked No1c1,013$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b2…10cebacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+51.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…45dcbacked No3c988.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x278f…10b8backed No2c967.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea6…0866backed No1c894.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x835f…d27dbacked No2c875.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d35…914ebacked No10c842.5$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfa…3c08backed Yes64c841$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b4…bbfabacked No1c834.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes35c824.02$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.0812245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked No63c801.61$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.56636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes32c781.26$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.136011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b04…a7eabacked No1c770.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7cd…e98dbacked No2c749.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.851855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+41.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdde3…a963backed No1c734.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2867…9815backed No2c709.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf577…160ebacked No2c708.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb736…cb60backed No2c608.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.