TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,125
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,125 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd650…c3a4backed No2c12,815$217 inLost-$216.57300%0 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e4…fb34backed No0c7,661$20 inLost-$19.754327.9%12 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb341…fd07backed No1c4,390$50 inLost-$50214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-79.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked No1c3,000$31 inLost-$31180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed No1c2,000$11 inLost-$10.671469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c1,366$16 inLost-$16.395071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No1c1,148$13 inLost-$12.786011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,111$12 inLost-$12.221,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed No1c1,000$12 inLost-$11.984320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2867…9815backed No2c1,000$15 inLost-$152810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No1c958.13$14 inLost-$13.881199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x835f…d27dbacked No1c841.91$12 inLost-$12.2770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No1c717.52$10 inLost-$10.212223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ab9…361dbacked No2c519.55$10 inLost-$10287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x061d…7706backed No3c457.26$14 inLost-$14.3110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…c943backed No2c425.93$10 inLost-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x632d…0526backed No4c306.91$11 inLost-$10.93966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b4…168fbacked Yes54c36.14$20 inWon+$16.575158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.