World Politics · resolved market
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea3c705f9010481c2070b4ac77adb1f50c0b0baa86ccc026ebcaab8d5d72f721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,137 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 67c | 2,522$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,252$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 67c | 1,016$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed Yes | 33c | 884$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 33c | 839$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 14c | 830.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked Yes | 33c | 799$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 29c | 755$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.02 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked Yes | 33c | 508$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 33c | 508$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked Yes | 6c | 335.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 72c | 294$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 34c | 214.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 29c | 197.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 67c | 195.16$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 168.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 117$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 112.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 40c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 82.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…b349backed No | 69c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…d69cbacked No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 50.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…8384backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 36c | 39.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 29.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes won
- Will the Social Democrats win 45-49 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.