World Politics · resolved market
Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82235d0e34b8b96e761871385bf61eab785d93fcc50907583cecdb1da91586b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,134 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 30c | 1,224$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.04 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 15c | 1,167$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…d367backed Yes | 14c | 906.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 49c | 755$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.18 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 655$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…085bbacked Yes | 18c | 401.19$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 29c | 383.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…fcaabacked Yes | 19c | 245.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 21c | 220.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed Yes | 16c | 209$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 17c | 156.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 14c | 148.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yes | 16c | 112.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 77c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Yes won
- Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will the Social Democrats win 45-49 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.