World Politics · resolved market
Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ad176648db81450d68a74aa352e55d04aeab5cd50cc897345740b94ae5ed5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,378 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1079…037fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,608$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…a763backed Yes | 40c | 1,595$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e9…4ea2backed Yes | 40c | 1,590$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…636bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,588$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d00…9017backed Yes | 40c | 1,575$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…97e7backed Yes | 40c | 1,572$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…2361backed Yes | 40c | 1,572$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b1…102abacked Yes | 40c | 1,567$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…9b72backed No | 60c | 1,073$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea1…590abacked No | 60c | 1,073$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdb…74d8backed No | 60c | 1,070$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…301bbacked No | 60c | 1,067$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…2797backed No | 60c | 1,065$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…cbdfbacked No | 60c | 1,057$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…e6dbbacked No | 60c | 1,055$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…96ebbacked No | 60c | 1,050$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…af72backed No | 60c | 1,048$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be7…af3ebacked No | 60c | 1,043$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…fc9fbacked No | 60c | 1,038$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…079fbacked No | 60c | 1,028$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked Yes | 53c | 754.53$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 48c | 612$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.62 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 78c | 430.68$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 45c | 380.83$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.37 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +647.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 45c | 272.59$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 42c | 219.27$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 46c | 213.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 38c | 204.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 19c | 160$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +373.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 45c | 148.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 144.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…8c56backed Yes | 52c | 113.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…5df5backed Yes | 60c | 112.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 52c | 103.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b3…062cbacked No | 47c | 85.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 81.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 33c | 81.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…8384backed Yes | 54c | 74.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4152…5d75backed Yes | 53c | 67.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…65bebacked Yes | 53c | 64.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…273ebacked Yes | 53c | 63.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 57.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 34c | 51.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…6935backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 50c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 29.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c2…6361backed Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…9635backed No | 46c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…df87backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 63c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…1de6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd739…ecb6backed Yes | 54c | 19.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?this page
- Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will the Social Democrats win 45-49 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
- Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.