Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a1053fe77693e7a7d6a7e102f5d0575d22bb78d561d56dd405969dace25e72b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,750 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 3,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 2c | 2,905$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 7c | 2,013$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 11c | 1,249$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 993.73$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 11c | 934.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…b0f7backed No | 7c | 857.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 8c | 820$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 7c | 810.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 13c | 788$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 7c | 757.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 14c | 741$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 79c | 666.62$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.19 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed No | 15c | 556$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 7c | 531.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 14c | 509$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed No | 7c | 499.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 12c | 492$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed No | 5c | 477.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 21c | 471$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 427.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 15c | 331$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…9306backed No | 15c | 286.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked No | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 14c | 215.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 198.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 168.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 151.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 144.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 119.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…93dbbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked Yes | 77c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Bugonia win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.