Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea2a0eba99d98b2a5b73e4d113309a830dc2b53b689aa22ba0b9e15549e54396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Longhornsof Texas Longhorns, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 6c | 1,963$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 230 | 28.3%65 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 998$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Texas Longhorns | 70c | 733$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Texas Longhorns | 70c | 657$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 598$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 548$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed Texas Longhorns | 70c | 534$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Texas Longhorns | 70c | 442$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 422$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Texas Longhorns | 70c | 211$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 112$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Texas Longhorns | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 30c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Texas Longhorns | 75c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Texas Longhorns | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.