Movies · resolved market
Will Spike Jonze win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7bbc2b6ec5bf04d80dbe15b175e572c486c56261ecaaf8a473bdd33e9778b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 40c | 1,396$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 60c | 1,193$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 35c | 1,188$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 42c | 1,065$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 58c | 639$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 40c | 632$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 60c | 632$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 35c | 617$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 65c | 571$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 36c | 559$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 65c | 555$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…aec3backed No | 65c | 553$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 64c | 526$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 58c | 426$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 64c | 367$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed Yes | 36c | 367$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 35c | 306$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 65c | 306$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 60c | 107$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 60c | 96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed No | 65c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 50c | 49.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spike Jonze win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?this page
- Will Andreas Nilsson win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
- Will Kim Gehrig win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?Yes won
- Will Miles Jay win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
- Will Steve Rogers win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.