TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,794 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44d…935cbacked No70c3,078$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No52c3,067$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes47c2,057$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.5517821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes42c1,400$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.6224634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes47c999.99$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed Yes22c967$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.26944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No43c915$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.451450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes21c879$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.411637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c51…a829backed No78c818.69$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes18c737$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.342055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No79c718$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.222343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes22c710$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbab2…dfb8backed Yes43c704$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No79c631$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.491030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes26c598$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.524030%12 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes57c579$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.971080%8 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+90.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked No78c535$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes21c459$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.613154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No80c417$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.61833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked No80c407$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.61435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d4…c2c6backed No44c394.72$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.511118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-68.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06a0…cae1backed Yes20c354$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.21080%8 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+161.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e3e…6b65backed No79c337$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes29c321.52$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.5612938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed Yes18c318$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes22c317$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+101.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c19…77cdbacked No79c293$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.47425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c262.75$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.331,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes40c250.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.935529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No59c250.07$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0815641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes21c250$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes51c250$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.462240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed Yes20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes28c231.72$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.275523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes57c229$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed Yes20c220$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+141.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.654247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No54c192.5$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.692552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed No78c169$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.82728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf76f…df4fbacked Yes40c164$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No65c150$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.134651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes32c148$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5226641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…91aabacked Yes68c147.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No53c146.33$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.034316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3133…fcddbacked Yes69c145.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes62c141$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0113150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No32c134$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5413321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60d…2204backed Yes59c127.74$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.742166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c126.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.141,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No53c117$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0116453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes22c112$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.361040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes57c107$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.013836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9930…2afcbacked No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4416741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d6…9357backed No79c96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No45c83.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4820841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed No65c76.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes68c74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.681758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed Yes33c73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.915444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes42c72.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1423741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes53c70.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1423751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2db…9070backed Yes34c59.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.681827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes35c57.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.142236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5527…4e68backed No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes33c48.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…3b00backed Yes31c45.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.673855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes26c42.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.772532%8 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1877…78d7backed No78c42.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9957…bdcfbacked Yes60c41.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb51…f32cbacked No40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164425%11 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed No60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.184445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes26c39.27$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.213517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No60c33.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.169244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No58c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.575549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No79c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.284348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96da…69ffbacked Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ce…931fbacked Yes54c22.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed No79c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.38650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…2361backed No71c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No79c14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0613337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No73c13.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0220668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.