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China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Trump Insult Xi this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$459,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $459,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes1c86,019$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.01185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb965…151bbacked Yes1c27,009$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c14,857$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.61370%0 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…2d3bbacked Yes0c13,952$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c13,429$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.291811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x038d…d501backed Yes1c11,889$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd7c…cd5ebacked Yes0c10,989$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes2c8,471$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.581118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2833…adcebacked Yes1c7,328$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482b…bffabacked Yes1c6,936$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19c…2467backed Yes1c5,915$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4047…b217backed Yes2c5,001$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b98…9313backed Yes3c5,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes2c5,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb8…c708backed Yes1c4,581$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe350…87cbbacked Yes1c4,167$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e0…1120backed Yes1c4,154$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c3,913$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x001f…9cb5backed Yes1c3,609$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3493…b46fbacked Yes2c3,199$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes1c3,110$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0201…fcd3backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c2,853$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730d…d448backed Yes2c2,800$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,652$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.351277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,468$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57cb…7219backed Yes1c2,343$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…c3a4backed Yes1c2,262$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e9…fd3cbacked Yes1c2,152$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…9bffbacked Yes2c2,015$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777a…001abacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd672…5056backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa7…bb0fbacked Yes3c1,909$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes1c1,861$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…9a2bbacked Yes1c1,800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,714$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.68568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e0…bcfdbacked Yes6c1,710$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x384c…2688backed Yes1c1,704$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9415…0389backed Yes1c1,653$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Yes1c1,626$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba0…89b2backed Yes2c1,600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe759…616bbacked Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d7…9b6ebacked Yes2c1,496$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb702…9135backed Yes2c1,454$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf8…1c7dbacked Yes1c1,374$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8339…54f5backed Yes4c1,362$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d4…8c51backed Yes2c1,255$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f1…92c9backed Yes1c1,180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes4c1,159$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ec…fbf1backed Yes1c1,158$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25b3…9128backed Yes1c1,157$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9c…90c5backed Yes1c1,110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8d0…1fe5backed Yes3c1,097$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a7…8819backed Yes3c1,071$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f3…3173backed Yes2c1,014$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x934c…d174backed Yes1c1,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98f…4ae3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes3c999.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe076…caabbacked Yes1c933.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes2c919.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257d…a183backed Yes3c887.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b6…2227backed Yes2c877.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a2…cd15backed Yes2c833.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6221…f293backed Yes2c827$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9b…7be4backed Yes2c817.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0da1…3f77backed Yes1c784.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5146…2cfebacked Yes2c783.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1b…66cdbacked Yes2c783.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes3c741.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7593…5cf1backed Yes2c715.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes2c700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc914…c458backed Yes3c670.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054e…403ebacked Yes1c669.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1e…9adabacked Yes3c637.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c563.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c533.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9a…1c50backed Yes3c504.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42f4…92f5backed Yes4c499.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6179…8b69backed Yes3c495.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…c169backed Yes3c400.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe65…e6a4backed Yes4c389.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc449…bb3fbacked Yes3c385.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…e69bbacked Yes3c357.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes3c349.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.834723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…b708backed Yes3c286.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x866f…683ebacked Yes4c271.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f93…b91fbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fff…0ee9backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e30…739abacked Yes6c159.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8386…c2f2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.