Music · resolved market
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b28e09362bdfb5ced2f397d0d93d162938e1f52ef77dd9ed6db6f6d864e4067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 57c | 24,413$13,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,599.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 38c | 15,570$5,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,962.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 59c | 1,566$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.76 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 47c | 985.5$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.93 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 985.24$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.19 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 907.17$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 25c | 863$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 45c | 684.63$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 616.61$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 78c | 490.85$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 43c | 397.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3e53backed Yes | 8c | 352.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 308.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 11c | 304$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 56c | 296.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 283.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.26 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 59c | 228.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 225$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.06 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 196.59$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 50c | 190.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 189.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 188.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 40c | 185.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 165$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 25c | 101.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 29c | 101.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…b53dbacked Yes | 66c | 99.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed No | 13c | 92.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 66c | 70.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked Yes | 39c | 60.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…46fbbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 47.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Yes | 61c | 43.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 53c | 31.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…c685backed No | 33c | 31.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 48c | 29.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 74c | 28.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…16e4backed No | 37c | 28.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…2187backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 59c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Ran to Atlanta - Drake, Future & Molly Santana" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.