Music · resolved market
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4005733f29c4c501c3dd8fdc1c2664bb3864c44a2553751373dc8e6a6c583f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 66c | 2,888$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 75c | 1,562$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.43 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed No | 54c | 1,345$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 990.46$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.72 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 67c | 803.3$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 42c | 761.01$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.89 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 67c | 652.01$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.92 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 32c | 545.89$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…95cdbacked Yes | 29c | 395.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 338.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 43c | 331.21$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 35c | 302.13$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.29 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 285$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…f83bbacked Yes | 37c | 269.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 40c | 255.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 227.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 41c | 209.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 188.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 188.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…86a3backed Yes | 25c | 154.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 27c | 145.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 137.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 131.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 130$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3e53backed Yes | 42c | 106.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 88.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 71.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 63.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 50c | 61.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…57e6backed Yes | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…71d7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 38c | 47.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 37c | 47.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 25c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 39c | 27.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a7…0af9backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked Yes | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Ran to Atlanta - Drake, Future & Molly Santana" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.