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Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$794,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$660,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $794,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x152f…a549backed Yes11c39,905$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+295.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes8c32,792$2,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,778.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+229.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes12c25,933$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick17cpaid+387.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5738…cbb7backed Yes2c20,333$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.991414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+251.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6f…f6eebacked Yes5c20,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c15,414$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.925722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f4…ab1ebacked Yes13c14,819$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+284.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes8c13,933$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+133%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafc0…5087backed Yes15c12,127$1,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,763.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed Yes8c11,661$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.231323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+60.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes10c11,355$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.211346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e22…155dbacked Yes4c10,566$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes12c10,471$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.261833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c06…1543backed Yes5c8,416$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick5cpaid+438%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes7c8,136$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes18c6,692$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.379115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaed4…7f61backed Yes6c6,237$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes13c6,127$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.541118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid+18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a58…f18abacked Yes12c6,011$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+1,115%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f9…e61dbacked Yes7c5,926$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.131216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+134.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c5,636$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.72432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe185…5f21backed Yes18c5,636$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c5,610$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+213.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes16c5,562$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.4312927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c4,990$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9115217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes5c4,950$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd39e…567fbacked Yes5c4,705$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c4,579$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.831074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes11c4,415$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+317.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c4,104$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.071302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes11c3,985$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c3,831$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.775327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes13c3,354$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.094429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+269.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ffa…b3c4backed Yes21c3,017$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201915.8%3 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes13c3,000$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.283345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes2c2,823$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.991323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+114.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0834…92dabacked Yes5c2,772$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes7c2,724$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.551811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c2,684$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.081024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a83…7d16backed Yes8c2,506$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x327e…adb3backed Yes4c2,502$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes7c2,436$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1426238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c6…bae8backed Yes8c2,205$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+326.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes12c2,149$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.583228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…099dbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…5839backed No70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9812…644fbacked Yes10c1,980$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b6d…bec8backed Yes3c1,829$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+341.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2cb…43eebacked Yes1c1,710$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1466…df0abacked Yes11c1,693$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c1,639$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.3326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes11c1,634$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes14c1,619$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ed…443cbacked Yes8c1,597$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4178…7b8ebacked Yes5c1,537$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda9…2dcabacked Yes5c1,527$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24db…d35dbacked Yes5c1,518$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No71c1,498$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.35977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes7c1,484$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes11c1,481$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.631315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes22c1,471$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.624517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes8c1,468$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.91822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x854f…0f42backed Yes5c1,450$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes9c1,370$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.272313%3 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ea…1043backed No74c1,360$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.83650%3 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6bc…e066backed Yes5c1,291$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f5…f85bbacked Yes4c1,273$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes30c1,262$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+131.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62cc…619cbacked Yes5c1,260$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes13c1,243$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.73716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes19c1,228$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.013627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes9c1,200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca82…e1f2backed Yes10c1,155$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed No74c1,136$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.143161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked No62c1,124$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.457656.6%43 W · 33 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes30c1,100$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.21128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-80.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes25c1,087$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.411020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff9…49e4backed Yes5c1,074$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf474…1b57backed Yes6c1,028$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4177…bbe4backed No67c1,026$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.912759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc510…2508backed Yes10c1,025$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes10c1,018$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes7c1,013$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.08156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed Yes15c1,012$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.191338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…945abacked Yes9c1,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes13c999.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+614.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x859d…fccbbacked Yes10c999.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked Yes4c999.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x433b…f372backed Yes5c985.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d78…4cc1backed Yes6c983.49$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcc8…227ebacked Yes34c978.55$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf01…c782backed Yes4c976.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a32…7c20backed Yes6c972$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes31c962$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed No73c961.19$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.484353.5%23 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3514…2a5bbacked Yes10c950.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f7…f3b3backed Yes6c937$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb08…2b30backed Yes12c925.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.