Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69dd1ab177dd350bbb87c378e3fbd0a46ebc66f2cdb607c168bcf001d17e6d8

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $248,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	19,034$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.69	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	14,417$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	0c	11,540$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.06	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	6,572$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.54	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	0c	5,668$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,371$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.2	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	0c	5,004$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	4,652$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4425…0d21backed Yes	1c	3,750$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.45	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	11c	3,000$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,577$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.74	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,113$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.81	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	2,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,527$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	11c	1,516$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.31	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	1,500$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.98	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed79…64b8backed Yes	1c	1,428$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x526d…3d46backed Yes	1c	1,299$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	1,118$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.88	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	14c	1,100$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	10c	1,032$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,028$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.89	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	900$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…87bebacked Yes	4c	849.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	833.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	3c	800$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	5c	800$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	799.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88fe…5691backed Yes	3c	766.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52c8…6e5fbacked Yes	13c	742.86$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f8…6c44backed Yes	8c	739.54$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.99	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a5…5c94backed Yes	3c	731.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3915…74b2backed Yes	3c	727.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc028…f5c9backed Yes	3c	727.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes	14c	711.76$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.74	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	709.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.21	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	8c	625.8$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.28	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	11c	615.07$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.29	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1045…a02fbacked Yes	14c	613.79$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes	10c	601.58$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+74.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	11c	597$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.7	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	12c	544$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.28	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	14c	499.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	443.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	12c	433.1$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.98	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	14c	400$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	11c	400$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	4c	387.58$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef9b…1060backed Yes	6c	374.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	6cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255e…a4cdbacked Yes	6c	319.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…4cbbbacked Yes	12c	319.25$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	4c	314.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	9c	311.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.27	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda64…b94cbacked Yes	10c	303.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	137	18.2%25 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…486cbacked Yes	6c	300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeded…4dcabacked Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4c…4277backed Yes	4c	277.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	9c	254.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	12c	219.01$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08be…1b37backed Yes	10c	209.49$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ac…c678backed Yes	12c	204.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc022…9821backed Yes	6c	180$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4efc…dd07backed Yes	12c	176.63$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b89…e6d7backed Yes	9c	168$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	14c	154.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	9c	133.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes	13c	124.62$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	317	43.2%137 W · 180 L	+28.2wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x582c…eb16backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	116	13.8%16 W · 100 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x107c…a071backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	20.3%12 W · 47 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event