Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4d20c7e33a3c87067a5df35fc1b1ad33f99a7dfb91b99097e08190de68a9a14

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $173,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,651 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	23,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	21,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	5,348$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.72	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	4,900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,903$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,614$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02cb…569cbacked Yes	1c	2,158$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-45%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	1c	2,040$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes	2c	2,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	1,609$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,605$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…8003backed Yes	2c	1,421$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	2c	999.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	946.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event