Us Midterms · resolved market
Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfddb4662697f3a08987d9e7d78a88e31138aaf318b2b973b026f02f351e93f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,557$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 2,232$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 2,003$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 1,533$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,459$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 1,406$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 14cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 12c | 855$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 847.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 793.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 2c | 760.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…d2ddbacked Yes | 2c | 658.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…3194backed Yes | 2c | 593.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 4c | 512.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 3c | 401$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1343…9046backed Yes | 3c | 387.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 10c | 188.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 14c | 108.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? this page
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.