World Politics · resolved market
Will valid votes be fewer than 5.8 million in Bolivia election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x615e88820bc4a817867f11b19e3961e999d7213cebcdaf05b45d7b5451f2302e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 76c | 12,114$9,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950.17 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 7c | 7,340$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.38 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 4c | 2,167$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 60c | 1,603$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.92 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d348backed No | 6c | 1,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,379$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 28c | 1,194$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 64c | 1,109$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.43 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked No | 3c | 1,001$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 887.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 48c | 881.6$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 809.93$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.7 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 752.91$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.64 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 15c | 727.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 2c | 723.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 36c | 703.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.47 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked No | 13c | 679.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…15c2backed Yes | 14c | 572.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 32c | 549.24$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 22c | 509.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 39c | 503.91$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 6c | 469.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 3c | 379.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 361.19$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 35c | 360.94$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.11 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 343.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.49 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 63c | 332.77$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 261.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.16 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 46c | 230.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 47c | 214.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked No | 15c | 213.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 33c | 213.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 68c | 166.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae0…d8d0backed Yes | 32c | 128.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a74…b263backed Yes | 69c | 122.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 37c | 117.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…5efdbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…f3c1backed Yes | 47c | 53.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…2a77backed Yes | 46c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 54c | 46.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…6eedbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 34.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…550abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will valid votes be fewer than 5.8 million in Bolivia election?this page
- Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?No won
- Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election?No won
- Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.