World Politics · resolved market
Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca089301fd82f0f02f4c6585650ca5264e4c951b9394c867de0f85ed90ee5974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 78c | 12,562$9,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.61 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 16c | 6,742$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.81 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 15c | 3,936$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.08 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 2,744$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.96 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,663$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.03 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,586$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.4 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,494$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,447$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.32 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9e…7047backed Yes | 14c | 1,230$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,183$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.46 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 1,183$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed No | 70c | 1,043$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.79 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d348backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b6…3f65backed Yes | 21c | 964.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 74c | 840.22$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 4c | 785.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +1,305.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…358ebacked Yes | 16c | 714.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 29c | 687.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 22c | 579$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 20c | 566.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 527.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 474.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…9f97backed Yes | 19c | 437.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 326.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 293$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 17c | 245.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…a17ebacked Yes | 18c | 237$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 80c | 220.74$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 22c | 213.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…8c52backed Yes | 14c | 176.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed Yes | 28c | 164$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 19c | 158.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 23c | 117.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 25c | 94.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 77.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e1…f594backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…556cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc675…f8debacked No | 74c | 35.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 72c | 26.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election?this page
- Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?No won
- Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election?No won
- Will valid votes be fewer than 5.8 million in Bolivia election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.