World Politics · resolved market
Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9f275c74cf52b8fbfbb6d18df54bc7818f18051c1aa844354160130eccf440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 23c | 900.76$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 21c | 700.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 23c | 616.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 3c | 579.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 30c | 418.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 366$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 347.5$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…15c2backed Yes | 22c | 220.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 19c | 213.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 20c | 210$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 76c | 208$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 74c | 207$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 131.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 12c | 125.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 21c | 112.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 68c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 69c | 77.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 35c | 57.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a74…b263backed Yes | 24c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will valid votes be between 5.8-6 million in Bolivia election?this page
- Will valid votes be between 6-6.2 million in Bolivia election?No won
- Will valid votes be fewer than 5.8 million in Bolivia election?Yes won
- Will valid votes be more than 6.2 million in Bolivia election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.