World Politics · resolved market
SPOLU wins 20% or more of vote in Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x632cadd778d1645df62fb4fc9d6d7122d840774f95dad025eb79e216d4369c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 36c | 8,507$3,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.83 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes | 67c | 8,167$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked Yes | 58c | 3,190$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…f2f9backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 38c | 1,577$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.69 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 39c | 585.79$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.79 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 39c | 485.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.34 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 53c | 398$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.06 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 46c | 320$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 41c | 257.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 191$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 32c | 180.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 70c | 178$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 55c | 175$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 28c | 171.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 166.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…8ebbbacked Yes | 61c | 160.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 138.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 80c | 125.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed No | 32c | 123.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…42babacked Yes | 66c | 117.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…1ee7backed Yes | 66c | 107.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 104.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 29c | 76.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 39c | 75.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…f658backed Yes | 61c | 67.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…e6fdbacked Yes | 63c | 63.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…26c9backed Yes | 65c | 61.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked No | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe237…9c8fbacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 78c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…879dbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77be…8448backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.