World Politics · resolved market
Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14a9d4bd87d741b3d0e1737a9c59987c5c76629c3a71e6b3927da44e41c64bd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Yes | 48c | 2,775$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 52c | 965.89$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.2 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 47c | 445.92$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.88 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked Yes | 4c | 383.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 348.85$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 287.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…7683backed Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 40c | 258.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 42c | 250$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…894cbacked Yes | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 57c | 229.64$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes | 46c | 216.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 44c | 120.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 53c | 112.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 48c | 110.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed Yes | 48c | 109$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 59c | 106.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…a5b0backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 49c | 86.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…391dbacked Yes | 45c | 67.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 23c | 61.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 54.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…e696backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2790…f9f8backed Yes | 43c | 44.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…38c2backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…a462backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…1046backed Yes | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed Yes | 42c | 33.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe59…425cbacked Yes | 45c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will SPD get between 13% and 16% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPD get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will SPD get less than 7% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPD get more than 16% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.