World Politics · resolved market
Will SPD get between 13% and 16% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac234387614911873ee512c842981a111cae3ed95dd97aab0d5f8827110b7475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 23c | 17,183$3,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,984.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 77c | 11,491$8,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.55 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 75c | 3,137$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.94 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb85c…b783backed Yes | 38c | 459$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 23c | 229$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 28c | 107.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 35c | 104.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 32c | 99.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…391dbacked Yes | 33c | 90.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 64c | 72.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 56.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 68c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPD get between 13% and 16% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPD get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will SPD get less than 7% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPD get more than 16% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.